Earnings · resolved market
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643a1e6f4f38a1d2a3204955eeca6ccd57e2a449af049feeb6db9ee613ccd0e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 48c | 1,130$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.82 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 57c | 1,080$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.94 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 48c | 573.05$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 54c | 427.3$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.65 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 41c | 290.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 37c | 290$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 66c | 161.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 46c | 160.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…046bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 41c | 142.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 33c | 139.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 72c | 95.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed No | 41c | 82.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 57c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 64c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 57c | 52.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 39c | 48.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 44.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…4cfbbacked Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 30c | 40.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed Yes | 61c | 29.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…467cbacked Yes | 63c | 27.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…668fbacked Yes | 67c | 24.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.