AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700a2226f2e9f2e2b18274077bc4bbfd11376169f2888728fae1014e5ed70297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked Yes | 1c | 13,637$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,913$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 3,342$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.81 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 14c | 1,533$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,018$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 5c | 759.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 4c | 684.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 680.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a9…69d6backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked Yes | 15c | 431.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 416.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 4c | 402.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 382$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 9c | 271.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 11c | 237.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 13c | 237$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 7c | 236.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 10c | 179.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 15c | 174.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes | 9c | 156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…ea9abacked Yes | 11c | 141.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 127.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…c9d3backed Yes | 18c | 117.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 91.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 13c | 82.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 18, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 20, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.