TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25f0…1facbacked Yes9c1,102$97 inLost-$96.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b20…38ffbacked Yes10c625.23$60 inLost-$60267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes17c618.32$102 inLost-$102.276237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes5c479.67$24 inLost-$23.9827536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes6c420.1$25 inLost-$25.2114339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes10c275.34$29 inLost-$28.545111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No74c250.83$186 inWon+$65.3213654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c168$38 inLost-$38.2872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7578…6426backed Yes19c133.34$26 inLost-$25.981668.8%11 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+64.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes26c95.73$25 inLost-$24.892913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c93.35$24 inLost-$24.2729430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d95…ed84backed No77c90.8$70 inWon+$20.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes13c79.99$10 inLost-$10.45246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No79c73$58 inWon+$15.3336945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes19c70$13 inLost-$13.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes17c66.37$11 inLost-$11.2740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked Yes25c57.06$14 inLost-$14.182955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes21c53$11 inLost-$11.3316418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x290d…dc40backed No77c44.09$34 inWon+$10.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…92d6backed Yes32c40$13 inLost-$12.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes25c39.99$10 inLost-$10.22864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed Yes28c38.12$11 inLost-$10.672040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c30$22 inWon+$7.88547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c23.37$15 inWon+$8.187448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6da…3699backed No80c20$16 inWon+$4825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c14.7$11 inWon+$3.21650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.