AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b959c33934f4ac4e97f292428623696cf1337f49ea982276111639a50b3d0ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 33c | 5,456$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.94 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5ec1backed Yes | 22c | 4,459$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 78c | 3,809$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.11 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 59c | 2,866$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.46 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 16c | 1,825$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.28 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…6043backed No | 15c | 1,633$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 38c | 1,527$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked No | 18c | 1,464$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +444.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…1e81backed Yes | 8c | 1,203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 73c | 1,111$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 56c | 942.51$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 942.36$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.32 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 888.23$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.77 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 24c | 807.05$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.74 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 789.01$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 773$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.49 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08d7backed No | 67c | 750.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 76c | 729.65$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.46 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…2a89backed No | 79c | 654.77$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 15c | 654.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +238.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 14c | 600$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…060cbacked Yes | 11c | 536.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 11c | 522.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 513.72$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.83 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…41e0backed No | 39c | 490.96$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 14c | 452.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…b7aabacked No | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 45c | 443.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed No | 19c | 426.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…0e59backed No | 22c | 406.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked Yes | 48c | 402.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 61c | 397.22$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 391.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 372$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 55c | 363$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 361.42$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 51c | 351.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.92 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes | 6c | 350.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked No | 18c | 339.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed No | 10c | 339$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 335.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.31 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 329.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 319.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.11 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked No | 18c | 308.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 300$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…e386backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…620cbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 71c | 299.71$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 35c | 273.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…837ebacked No | 20c | 272.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…cba6backed No | 17c | 263.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +139%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…787cbacked No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 13c | 253.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0552…0cb5backed No | 20c | 252.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +409.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked No | 32c | 238.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…3bb9backed No | 12c | 236.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 219.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.46 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…6267backed Yes | 9c | 215.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 61c | 212.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938b…37c8backed Yes | 10c | 203.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…9336backed Yes | 68c | 202.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed No | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…f7ddbacked No | 13c | 194.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +450%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 188.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2d…7d15backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 43c | 180.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…ace2backed Yes | 21c | 174.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 14c | 168.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…0095backed No | 18c | 168.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 163$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…cd2ebacked No | 38c | 162.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 18c | 162.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.23 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 67c | 159.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…4438backed Yes | 14c | 156.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed No | 73c | 155.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 153.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d43…76c2backed Yes | 13c | 149.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…8cf2backed Yes | 42c | 145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…f100backed No | 29c | 144.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…d7c0backed No | 16c | 136.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 34c | 125$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 124.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 117.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…2babbacked Yes | 19c | 113.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…79e5backed No | 18c | 108.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcc…edbebacked No | 19c | 106.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 30c | 104.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 102.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 100.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…9df8backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…5e39backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 18, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 20, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.