TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0bd0…67b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+151.7%+$606.98
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$561.93
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$461.54
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,070
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+121.6%+$243.17
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$624.38
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+75.3%+$158.18
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.88
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$62.5
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$127
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$6.91
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66%+$32.99
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$48.58
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+69%+$15.87
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$11.22
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$12.5
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+127.4%+$39.25
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+418.6%+$418.56
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.96
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$668.22
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,018Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$273.34
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+30%+$35.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,162
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$126.96
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+253.5%+$309.21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$235.86
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$132.91
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$115.29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,880Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33%+$949.2
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+60.8%+$9.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$50.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$6.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+27.2%+$5.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.