AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56826627c8ff3358232e48476e3cd23f1b872a8abbb6fb466192814efc71885
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 19c | 319.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 20c | 307.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…051bbacked No | 58c | 216.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 178.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 68c | 165$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 69c | 157$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked No | 43c | 127.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 67c | 126.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 42c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 43c | 115.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 50c | 110.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 20c | 101.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 100.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 98.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…72ccbacked Yes | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked Yes | 26c | 79.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 67c | 79.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 67.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e72cbacked No | 36c | 56.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 24c | 54.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…b601backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 34c | 52.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 45c | 51.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…0141backed Yes | 34c | 44.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 40.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…7aedbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 34.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 58c | 32.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 31.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 49c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…4073backed No | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 22.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?this page
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?No won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.