AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c1441f815e1c8dcb858d0083ee9618664861b03f1771d619e55f2a24c02da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b8…051bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,752$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 23c | 447.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 71c | 414.72$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…b601backed Yes | 8c | 266.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked Yes | 17c | 177.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 30c | 158.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 100.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 27c | 91.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 72c | 43.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…1424backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 34c | 37.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 31c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked No | 67c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 71c | 18.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8f…2cd1backed No | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?this page
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.