Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056038859c425dd45e0efa00b25f030bf76b8843b9b9d275a9e9c10710b9e5a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 48c | 2,339$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 59c | 2,084$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.58 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 55c | 1,714$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.82 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.06 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,015$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f86ebacked Yes | 3c | 591$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cf…21cabacked Yes | 3c | 553$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c7…7080backed Yes | 3c | 504$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6f…635fbacked Yes | 3c | 498$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 5c | 438.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 72c | 322.37$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…3c54backed Yes | 32c | 289.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 30c | 249.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 47c | 165.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 135.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 129.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 45c | 84.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 58c | 73.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 74c | 49.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 29.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 78c | 28.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…5b7bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?this page
- Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Alina Habba be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Steven Boston be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Vinnie Brand be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.