Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55728e5c560c8cdccb726ccb501494097ef1b48b86d951cc4f01e4fd827eaf57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,412$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.13 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 42c | 1,465$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.3 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 765.78$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.51 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 661.39$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 494.98$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.38 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 57c | 420$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 42c | 413.93$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 9c | 347.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 59c | 341.42$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 47c | 332.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 51c | 280$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 52c | 265$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 7c | 207.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 57c | 199.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 199.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed No | 58c | 199$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 185.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 162$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 22c | 153.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 17c | 150.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…971abacked No | 57c | 144$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 135.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 131.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 44c | 123.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 32c | 114.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 107.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 41c | 99.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 89.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 80.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed Yes | 43c | 79.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 64.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 49c | 62.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 55.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 57c | 51.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…8d29backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 49.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 37c | 44.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 44c | 44.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 59c | 43.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 40.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 46c | 39.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 47c | 37.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 37.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 56c | 28.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 24.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…24d3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?this page
- Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Alina Habba be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?Yes won
- Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Steven Boston be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Vinnie Brand be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.