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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$259,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x13f8…4c2dbacked Yes3c4,206$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7556…fd1ebacked Yes3c4,077$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd543…bf70backed Yes3c2,905$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba9…f524backed Yes3c2,488$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e00…c129backed Yes3c2,363$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc119…2157backed Yes3c2,307$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fee…3e12backed Yes3c2,211$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe629…0d98backed Yes3c2,191$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f0…5f52backed Yes3c2,160$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191d…9d60backed Yes3c2,138$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e4…2cfbbacked Yes3c2,127$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a53…bcdfbacked Yes3c2,123$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8d…8b17backed Yes3c2,069$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…f3f1backed Yes3c1,951$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e77…8525backed Yes3c1,886$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4896…1a9abacked Yes3c1,828$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…0071backed Yes3c1,817$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e1…4774backed Yes3c1,771$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7695…b1cdbacked Yes3c1,741$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06f…5dcfbacked Yes3c1,728$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…843ebacked Yes3c1,726$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062b…4f9bbacked Yes3c1,648$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2831…bf88backed Yes3c1,598$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6722…be00backed Yes3c1,550$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cc…a917backed Yes3c1,549$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c01…276cbacked Yes3c1,547$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6e…1ce2backed Yes3c1,471$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab82…27edbacked Yes3c1,461$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa245…d248backed Yes3c1,435$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fc…ef10backed Yes3c1,414$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6784…97cebacked Yes3c1,379$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52db…1d1cbacked Yes3c1,378$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda04…d0edbacked Yes3c1,372$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf028…8a20backed Yes3c1,362$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74c…7c64backed Yes3c1,334$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6970…b924backed Yes3c1,288$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…c88cbacked Yes3c1,284$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x788e…fe4dbacked Yes3c1,272$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8c…0bd8backed Yes3c1,264$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b8…51f2backed Yes3c1,253$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76da…85dabacked Yes3c1,209$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x475a…c339backed Yes3c1,174$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…aee7backed Yes3c1,172$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af8…0a0cbacked Yes3c1,103$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…8dbdbacked Yes3c1,078$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd6…c8d9backed Yes3c1,047$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf66…e5f6backed Yes3c1,037$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…2628backed Yes3c1,028$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes2c999.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.825135.9%90 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4657…9bd8backed Yes3c966$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40af…d8a4backed Yes3c957$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a05…2b01backed Yes3c943$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c933.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761964.6%9 W · 187 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…4964backed Yes3c932$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c8…11c3backed Yes3c931$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57a…9c38backed Yes3c892$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e60…908bbacked Yes3c879$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb5…91b6backed Yes3c875$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a9…8e65backed Yes3c863$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cf…d76bbacked Yes3c804$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b0a…89cdbacked Yes3c802$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827c…1618backed Yes3c794$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39e…0618backed Yes3c792$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…73c8backed Yes3c788$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa041…facbbacked Yes3c766$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c732.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8327521.8%60 W · 215 L-15.7wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x467e…661abacked Yes3c725$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d3…d9cabacked Yes3c716$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd075…4398backed Yes3c716$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfd…7e52backed Yes3c705$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…b659backed Yes3c700$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd044…2e1bbacked Yes3c646$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb50…376fbacked Yes3c607$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f4…2104backed Yes3c603$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes4c568.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb477…a2fbbacked Yes3c540$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4767…29d3backed Yes3c540$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb97…7cabbacked Yes3c513$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23a3…d5ddbacked Yes3c501$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf94…b59ebacked Yes3c487$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…b3b5backed Yes3c487$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9719…fb7cbacked Yes3c485$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b97…451cbacked Yes3c474$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42d…0eccbacked Yes3c473$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b7…32a1backed Yes3c468$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fc…120dbacked Yes3c462$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c452$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291051%1 W · 104 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3219…9219backed Yes3c426$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a9…ec02backed Yes3c406$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe264…3defbacked Yes3c406$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01d…8bd2backed Yes3c382$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes4c338.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.627538.7%29 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa227…0b0ebacked Yes3c328$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…1834backed Yes3c307$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes5c295.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked Yes5c206.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.