Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65071ebb4053ebd005fff8ecfa6153bdd452ff5a4da9b942d9aa82f17214bc36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe150…6874backed Yes | 3c | 2,875$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…09abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,833$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…dd8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,726$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…39aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,251$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…e0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,237$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…0a80backed Yes | 3c | 890$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…429abacked Yes | 3c | 883$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…8286backed Yes | 3c | 837$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…b25abacked Yes | 3c | 817$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…c5f8backed Yes | 3c | 816$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…5f55backed Yes | 3c | 812$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d4c5backed Yes | 3c | 764$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…eff5backed Yes | 3c | 661$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…7a75backed Yes | 3c | 643$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…fe7abacked Yes | 3c | 587$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be0…c193backed Yes | 3c | 583$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…b93abacked Yes | 3c | 559$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…572fbacked Yes | 3c | 558$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes | 3c | 453$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?this page
- Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Alina Habba be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?Yes won
- Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Steven Boston be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
- Will Vinnie Brand be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.