TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes44c1,459$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.2534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes53c1,152$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.8218041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c775.18$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.1918237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes34c732.56$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9622833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No44c663.16$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.1510739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No66c420$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.83070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No68c400$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1282832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes77c399.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…171bbacked Yes8c291.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes31c279$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6219631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes42c276.48$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7522848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes63c253.08$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.915445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No78c223.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.032634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10813919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes68c197$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.323438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c194.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5117140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes37c189.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.991735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes65c179.96$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1512643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No62c178.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7114356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c174.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6233238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No61c163.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1321161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.42528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes42c144.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3224861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No61c135.94$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No60c135.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.356336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No52c130.34$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1910340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No35c120$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c116.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.598132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c116$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.684841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No51c113.23$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.469147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed No54c112.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes36c109.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes57c103.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.677843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4327222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes52c96.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2615232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No58c96.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7321155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No74c87.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.331020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06c…ee85backed Yes45c87.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x202b…971abacked Yes57c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.451612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes46c83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.777447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.24245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes62c79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9110361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No21c74.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.942250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b48…8fefbacked Yes38c71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No28c70.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6412545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No44c67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5249411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No50c65.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.995642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.310946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No50c58.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.475133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No23c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.351957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.365244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.58831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…8d29backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No21c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.54562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes57c49.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No72c48.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.714940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes79c45.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.499578.9%75 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes30c45.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccfc…678ebacked Yes38c39.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No53c38.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.28234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c38.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7412231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No44c37.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes33c37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0812150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf90…62b9backed No44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.925950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes49c33.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96db…499fbacked Yes38c31.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No41c26.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.425139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb66…54d6backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.252470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes50c23.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7934129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No52c23.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked Yes64c18.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.06955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.774949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.