TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe9e…6944

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT4544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$63.82
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+163.3%+$169.81
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$363.86
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.66
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+253.9%+$385.97
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$85.99
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$59.47
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,062Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+80.9%+$1,668.48
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+386.2%+$849.7
Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$384
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+110.7%+$460.45
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.76
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$590
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$422
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$18.28
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+170.2%+$724.2
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+255.2%+$241.7
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.94
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$5,168Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$4,964.4
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.43
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.46
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.62
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$33.65
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$53.21
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$26.14
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+96.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+292.6%+$292.61
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$72.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$27.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$26.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.