Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187031670352401615506d0ae236e3e1581fb10b1016c3c42eafb9c47af562de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 31c | 3,777$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.55 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 71c | 2,651$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.11 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 15c | 2,542$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.6 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 16c | 938$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 18c | 834.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 636.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 435.05$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…630bbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 396.81$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 378.09$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 350$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 28c | 299.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 72c | 276.4$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 171.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 113.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 38c | 108.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 108.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 39c | 106.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 27c | 106.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 102.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 69c | 95.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 15c | 87.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 86.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 13c | 80.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 33c | 69.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 74c | 67.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 66.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 60.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 73c | 47.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 44.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 37.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.