TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xed19…cb5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
273
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 60 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT14055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 140 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.25
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$10.96
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.65
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+61.2%+$42.65
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.04
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.95
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$405.49
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.24
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.19
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.39
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.1
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.75
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.11
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$41.62
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.33
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.7
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$107.17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.61
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$998Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$263.42
Showing 25 of 140 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.52
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$5.51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$7.33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,196.72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.68
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$40.49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$17.04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$12.8
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$17.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.97
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,959Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$794.44
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$156.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+96.7%+$44.79
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.52
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$65.14
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.83
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.02
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.76
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$43.29
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will a Goal be Scored During 16-30 Minute?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.87
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+213.9%+$276.59
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.83
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.31
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.2
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$27.6
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.08
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$41.76
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.39
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+66.6%+$33.84
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$13.44
Will Harry Kane score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.74
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+220.8%+$55.74
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.94
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$14.89
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$8.15
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$10.77
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$69.91
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$27.57
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$8.32
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$58.71
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.8
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$46.54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.32
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.09
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.84
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64%+$12.56
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46%+$30.32
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38%+$14.72
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.59
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.72
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.05
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$11.6
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.21
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$57.88
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.38
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$84.64
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.28
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$68.9
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+66.6%+$45.55
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$13.08
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.39
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$5.02
Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.32
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.32
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+60%+$31.06
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.68
Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9.29
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.76
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$9.2
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.87
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$13.66
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.24
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.79
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.8
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.54
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,333.32
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+108.7%+$88.85
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$883Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$883.27
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$206.46
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+25.5%+$122.29
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$150.74
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$88.43
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+57.9%+$91.65
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10.27
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+696.7%+$133.26
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$137.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.84
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.04
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.51
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$9.3
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+143.2%+$47.26
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.99
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+82%+$26.8
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$233.54
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$31
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$20
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.03
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.22
All 12 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+525%+$167.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$153
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.