TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes68c5,976$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No30c3,246$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.5222833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No14c2,000$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5914729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed No30c1,973$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5904544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No25c1,011$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.247448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes63c1,000$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.834748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No27c923.97$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.476750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes72c667.62$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7615445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes60c660.98$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c620.6$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes71c591$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.396826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes58c500$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.885547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes71c499.17$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7615431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No17c491.18$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8613143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No5c482.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.118740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No38c458.68$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.333421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c363.18$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1631434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No30c359.32$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4813625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes74c309.07$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.573661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed Yes72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1147437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes70c257.14$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.14366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes61c219$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.412254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+125.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6024831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No7c199.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes69c197.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9116833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No30c197.03$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6410946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…a3debacked Yes73c160$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No36c156.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.254723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No8c144.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.419035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.83647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.36636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.422848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes70c119$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2944935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes69c117.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.332360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes72c115$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0221161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes71c108$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.327338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes69c102.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2112231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2719631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed96…d6edbacked Yes75c98.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No35c97.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.383040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes63c82.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.061457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No38c80.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7666914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1eb5…c246backed No35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc262…6587backed Yes72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.273461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No35c67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.129343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No40c66.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.453756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes60c66.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.415030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11b5…8c02backed No38c66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No30c63.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.072161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No41c63.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.853732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9e4…d097backed Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…4cf2backed Yes73c61.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No40c58.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5349411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No30c53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No40c52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.820542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd832…67e0backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0aa…3259backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+67.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes61c49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.118332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes72c45.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ee…a2e3backed No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.610034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21a6…c753backed Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes70c38.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.429647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked No40c31.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed Yes68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No40c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed No40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebbf…cf44backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8e…2175backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes60c18.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.223560%21 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes67c17.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2657…bad1backed Yes74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.96100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.