Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65fd69d2a7023d2368877caf4ba2825a119a9f0c9ae83efd477241efcf99b5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes | 68c | 5,976$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 30c | 3,246$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.52 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 14c | 2,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed No | 30c | 1,973$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 25c | 1,011$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.83 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 27c | 923.97$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.47 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 72c | 667.62$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 60c | 660.98$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 620.6$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 71c | 591$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 58c | 500$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.88 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 71c | 499.17$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 491.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 482.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 458.68$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 363.18$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 30c | 359.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 74c | 309.07$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 257.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes | 61c | 219$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 197.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 197.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 36c | 156.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 144.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 119$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 69c | 117.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 69c | 102.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 75c | 98.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 35c | 97.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 63c | 82.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 80.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 40c | 66.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 60c | 66.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 30c | 63.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 41c | 63.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…d097backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…4cf2backed Yes | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 58.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 72c | 45.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 70c | 38.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 40c | 31.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked No | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 60c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Doug Crockett be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.