Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60a9c35000344a8ef5a6b36a7261150fdaf785cc23458e01dac96a33ff127a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 29c | 1,450$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,277$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 28c | 620.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 27c | 500.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 459.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 398$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 324.05$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 307.88$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked No | 72c | 289$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 275.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 29c | 188$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 69c | 127.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 118.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 118.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked No | 72c | 94.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 29c | 77.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075c…bfa0backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 20c | 50.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…9ea3backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 77c | 37.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…fdb4backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…54eabacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…a96abacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…b046backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 80c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Doug Crockett be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.