TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No61c17,485$10,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,587.7814729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes32c12,950$4,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,844.461586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No52c10,813$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,639.9110245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes34c10,675$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,998.4934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No69c10,604$7,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,306.6915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes48c9,721$4,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,011.310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No48c7,147$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,462.586152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes30c6,702$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,691.672646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes29c5,866$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.481361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes40c4,231$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.356035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No56c4,109$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.724433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No73c4,057$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.75129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes39c4,000$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.997448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes38c3,976$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.2815445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No60c3,710$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.048149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa696…1d24backed Yes51c3,428$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.87825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6205547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes35c2,836$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.043116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes47c2,600$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a2…775dbacked No49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes49c2,267$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.453243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No61c2,248$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.231241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes51c2,195$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.381861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes52c2,170$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.61050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes78c2,153$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.9721161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No54c2,022$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.161936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No46c1,978$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.5618041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Yes50c1,960$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes38c1,832$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.512245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes29c1,790$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.922833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No54c1,750$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9511650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes55c1,750$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.497100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes32c1,666$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.35251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c1,659$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.826336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No51c1,602$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.4710739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes32c1,563$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.53020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No49c1,530$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.32025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Yes54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes27c1,500$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.473920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes52c1,483$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.871030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes52c1,426$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes28c1,391$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.9813625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes35c1,324$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.324242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No65c1,310$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.982218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes35c1,300$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8403348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes44c1,255$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.743246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes52c1,172$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.353458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c1,150$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.0831434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.052630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c1,096$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.3610947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d66…928fbacked Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ec…b7a9backed Yes55c966.47$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…c2e6backed No45c920.42$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c900$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.7917140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked No59c892.78$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c865.51$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1213143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked Yes39c857.59$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes49c808.87$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.876355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes56c772.33$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.072128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No69c750.57$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.394748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes37c699.99$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.994330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No51c691.9$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.876750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes35c690.8$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.325747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes62c648.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.471533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x103f…ac3abacked Yes64c623.86$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No55c614.36$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.083751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No26c605.76$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.51735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No71c600$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4261040%4 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c600$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.367451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No63c581.04$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.033941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes46c575$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.59326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes50c566.44$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.929819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No5c536.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.245111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes55c520$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8112231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd08…ee64backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked Yes51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes35c499.99$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes33c480.46$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2513919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c460.7$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.39010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes41c456.46$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26822848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No38c444.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.318332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes33c423.02$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.021442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes32c406$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.8719631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc082…eb9bbacked No72c405.41$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes34c402.8$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.887100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2882532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes46c394.64$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8933421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No64c388.94$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.038051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No69c384.43$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.075547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes32c377.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.584136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes35c365.71$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.928757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes35c363.24$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.811553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No56c354.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes62c348$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.814356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.