TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1d66…928f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$950.15
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,047Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,047.06
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,853Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$984.08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$400
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,003Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$390.44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$1,180
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$1,992
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,152.22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$188
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$742.69
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+100%+$750
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.48
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.54
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+113.5%+$1,793.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+32.9%+$98.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$197.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$26.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$763Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$762.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.