Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4856110844fcec80c0a89e57345db344ed85505296786b9a4de2372a0ef60955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 60c | 5,256$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.05 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 35c | 4,020$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…7207backed No | 20c | 3,504$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 31c | 3,115$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 40c | 3,000$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.54 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,584$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.53 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 25c | 2,509$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.61 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 27c | 1,944$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.85 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…c307backed No | 37c | 1,819$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 31c | 1,558$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.96 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 27c | 1,298$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 65c | 1,170$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 45c | 1,064$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked Yes | 50c | 998.63$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 64c | 973.78$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.68 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 74c | 726.55$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.75 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked No | 5c | 656.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…beb3backed Yes | 69c | 574.12$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 26c | 573.7$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 28c | 571.71$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 72c | 519.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…d14cbacked Yes | 73c | 493.17$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed No | 16c | 487.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…32b0backed Yes | 73c | 485.4$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed Yes | 73c | 480.56$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked No | 7c | 442.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed Yes | 69c | 415.67$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e50dbacked Yes | 67c | 380.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 74c | 351.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f51…da36backed Yes | 69c | 299.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 26c | 268.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…0362backed No | 13c | 266.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 29c | 246.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f6…3ca4backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a42…3d14backed No | 29c | 154.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…d35fbacked No | 36c | 151.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 67c | 123.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 78c | 112.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…671dbacked No | 35c | 102.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 22c | 100.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…4533backed No | 34c | 98.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed No | 31c | 58.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 49.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed No | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…7f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 40.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…7a69backed Yes | 65c | 36.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…0e31backed Yes | 66c | 36.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…9783backed Yes | 64c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…d5cebacked No | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 78c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…d976backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…4776backed Yes | 65c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.