Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e0f81024b3b5430ae235c9a17921299e3e61d4a408ca016a1b12e2412cbdad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 46c | 16,210$7,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,821.74 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 3c | 14,999$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 48c | 7,906$3,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,781.05 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 51c | 7,612$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846.02 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 39c | 6,417$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed Yes | 74c | 3,269$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 68c | 2,291$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.46 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 60c | 1,800$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 50c | 1,398$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7e…f02cbacked No | 36c | 1,298$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked No | 50c | 1,297$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 67c | 1,162$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.43 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed No | 58c | 1,099$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 79c | 852.8$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 34c | 829.15$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.91 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…beb3backed Yes | 78c | 741.35$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked No | 29c | 699.44$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 3c | 654.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 11c | 438.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed No | 9c | 406.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 26c | 404.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 52c | 399.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 15c | 335.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 40c | 331.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.19 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e4…25d3backed No | 30c | 296.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 56c | 277.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 35c | 259.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed No | 33c | 202.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e8bdbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked No | 14c | 196.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 32c | 161.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed Yes | 69c | 138.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…e7a4backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 11c | 97.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…d1f4backed Yes | 55c | 85.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed No | 62c | 84.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked Yes | 67c | 56.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 55.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…7f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 38.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…88c7backed Yes | 38c | 36.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +509.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf59…36f3backed No | 37c | 35.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 63c | 28.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…eed2backed Yes | 53c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 21.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.