Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97660f5f36890145dcc1652e0f6851e522752cc68890dda040758c1ec04edd5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed Yes | 14c | 5,972$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 72c | 5,897$4,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.06 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 24c | 2,850$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 26c | 2,138$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.68 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Yes | 27c | 2,022$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,212$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 68c | 1,055$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 28c | 1,036$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.12 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 76c | 1,000$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.71 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 34c | 982.52$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 61c | 839.83$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.53 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 66c | 758.95$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 39c | 657$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.23 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 28c | 630$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 69c | 506.78$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 67c | 440$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +617.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 435.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked Yes | 24c | 350$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 341.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 8c | 333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…ec1dbacked No | 73c | 291.97$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed No | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 50c | 200.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…8b3bbacked No | 72c | 199.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes | 32c | 178.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…0f4abacked Yes | 28c | 160.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…2606backed Yes | 27c | 156.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e50dbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 77c | 148.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 38c | 146.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 145.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 75c | 133.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 74c | 130.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…5067backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 28c | 116.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…fcf1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 61c | 93.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 33c | 83.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed No | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…21bebacked No | 73c | 68.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…b248backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…64d7backed No | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +209.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 52.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…dbb1backed Yes | 46c | 50.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…776bbacked No | 64c | 41.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…027cbacked No | 74c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…5f75backed No | 69c | 33.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…2b60backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 76c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc885…05b7backed No | 76c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.