Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf672805adbc2932322e9663f7516a5f5f66ccb60a92e4531738c675461d81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 35c | 4,398$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.2 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 58c | 4,250$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 54c | 3,370$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 45c | 2,898$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.49 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 45c | 2,780$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 48c | 1,850$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.28 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…4fa8backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 61c | 1,322$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.71 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…9618backed Yes | 50c | 1,251$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 1,172$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.57 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 70c | 1,033$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.2 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 55c | 1,027$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.54 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 60c | 1,000$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 41c | 833.05$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 64c | 796.15$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked No | 52c | 770.83$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 70c | 770.53$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed No | 65c | 739.02$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 76c | 730.6$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 53c | 677.53$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.32 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 23c | 640.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.32 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 4c | 626$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…773dbacked No | 77c | 605.88$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 63c | 491.42$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 44c | 451.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.69 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 53c | 447.27$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.43 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 28c | 407.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 27c | 365.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 52c | 356.24$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 25c | 342.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…32b0backed Yes | 36c | 302.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…fcf1backed No | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 70c | 285.08$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 23c | 281.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 65c | 275.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 71c | 246.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 18c | 241.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 35c | 225.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…6d01backed No | 37c | 216.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…0362backed Yes | 45c | 213.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 54c | 209.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d92…a53bbacked Yes | 68c | 205.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed Yes | 72c | 204.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked No | 30c | 203.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 203.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 50c | 199.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…6338backed Yes | 64c | 189.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 8c | 188.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 36c | 175.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7421…9cddbacked Yes | 50c | 157.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed Yes | 27c | 142.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 134.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 32c | 121.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 104.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 56c | 103.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 39c | 100.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b68…5007backed Yes | 50c | 95.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…f96dbacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…35acbacked Yes | 65c | 74.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 25c | 67.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…5857backed No | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 56.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…5c65backed Yes | 77c | 55.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes | 75c | 55.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…9afdbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…8ac2backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…739cbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 37c | 46.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…0d36backed Yes | 55c | 44.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…2bd4backed Yes | 46c | 44.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 39c | 42.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 43c | 40.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed No | 56c | 23.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 23.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 60c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…40d2backed No | 76c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.