TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c95…30cbbacked Yes1c4,481$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.164942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed Yes35c4,398$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.27270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No58c4,250$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77516247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No54c3,370$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.82748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed No45c2,898$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.498154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes45c2,780$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed Yes45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes48c1,850$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.283857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa01…4fa8backed Yes2c1,581$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No61c1,322$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.719142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x257c…9618backed Yes50c1,251$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.731145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No44c1,172$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.5716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36e7…46e6backed No70c1,033$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.24163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No55c1,027$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.546927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No60c1,000$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No41c833.05$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.072231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick16cpaid+295.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked No64c796.15$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.152114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-74.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe9d5…6b9abacked No52c770.83$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a34…7ca4backed No70c770.53$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.533330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3fd3…30c5backed No65c739.02$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2561435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed No76c730.6$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.29580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No53c677.53$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.323622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No23c640.67$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3210336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes4c626$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.042343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088d…773dbacked No77c605.88$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.09580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed No63c491.42$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.842744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No44c451.24$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6913422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No53c447.27$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4323841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes28c407.25$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.136931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No27c365.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+124.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes52c356.24$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.474259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked No25c342.37$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f9…32b0backed Yes36c302.1$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1472665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d8…fcf1backed No52c300$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1431250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No70c285.08$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.719550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No23c281.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.3411421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed No65c275.56$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.442520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f78…2d21backed No50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.06911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-77.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…b912backed Yes72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes71c246.3$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.871747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed No41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes18c241.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.492910.3%3 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Yes35c225.21$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c89…6d01backed No37c216.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x193f…0362backed Yes45c213.06$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb19…e7a3backed No54c209.67$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.45911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d92…a53bbacked Yes68c205.86$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed Yes72c204.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.131258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked No30c203.63$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.554129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c203.46$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.45650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes50c199.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.894751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a42…6338backed Yes64c189.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.25540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe53c…e569backed No8c188.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.682860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No36c175.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.334816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7421…9cddbacked Yes50c157.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4dd…3046backed Yes27c142.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes30c134.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4910462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes32c121.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.212236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes17c117.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No64c104.58$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.271668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes56c103.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.834740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No39c100.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67fc…ddfbbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+41.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b68…5007backed Yes50c95.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2039…f96dbacked No70c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+80.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd226…35acbacked Yes65c74.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+57.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No25c67.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.412630.8%8 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x651f…5857backed No42c66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes64c66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.32356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c59.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1846320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes21c56.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.823033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6be…5c65backed Yes77c55.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes75c55.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.751020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes37c53.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1971…9afdbacked Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa094…8ac2backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25a…739cbacked No34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+285.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No70c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.294891.7%44 W · 4 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes37c46.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b8…0d36backed Yes55c44.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…2bd4backed Yes46c44.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No39c42.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.086246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes25c42.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes43c40.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.323775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x300f…1ed2backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc7c…4ce2backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed No56c23.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes53c23.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.324759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9a5…d93bbacked No60c21.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.522045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+102.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…40d2backed No76c16.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.