Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f81bfe2d4d9aa05f342fb8f0ef1f92ab13bdcb7ccc908586386da5e03b7ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 4,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 7c | 2,725$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 40c | 1,814$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 12c | 1,594$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…efc9backed No | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 17c | 1,370$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…7207backed No | 42c | 1,187$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 35c | 1,096$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.57 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 46c | 1,049$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.57 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.19 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 49c | 926.56$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.01 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 34c | 810.51$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 50c | 770.28$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.88 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 36c | 643.27$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 40c | 491.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.94 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 76c | 385.84$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 27c | 368.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 60c | 360.17$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…9618backed Yes | 71c | 307.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 18c | 294.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 22c | 293.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 67c | 227.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed Yes | 79c | 208.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 62c | 199.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 149.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…524dbacked Yes | 79c | 143.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 140.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 9c | 139.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 12c | 130.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 13c | 117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 35c | 112.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…58a7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e8bdbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 74c | 82.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 65c | 72.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed No | 68c | 68.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 35c | 67.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…5ce6backed No | 65c | 26.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 76c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.