Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5942abc4404bab5042cfebcccf0d714307a7a89a7de78a5d4c11abc1d84a285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 43c | 1,057$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.73 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 58c | 1,023$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.85 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 67c | 900$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 33c | 813.17$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…32b0backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 64c | 570$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 64c | 430.1$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked Yes | 33c | 314.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 66c | 285.31$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 229.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 65c | 153.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 79c | 135.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 15c | 105.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…0f4abacked Yes | 42c | 76.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…8b3bbacked No | 71c | 67.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 64.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 47c | 64.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 44c | 56.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…2f15backed Yes | 31c | 43.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…b1c2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…5f75backed No | 59c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 77c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.