Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1eb99e4a4d834ab43e81db5c61dd032018f382aa1f8e765eb8a3345e8feeb24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 24c | 4,352$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 76c | 3,600$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 11c | 3,500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.42 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 2,322$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 8c | 1,434$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 8c | 834.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 50c | 708.17$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.09 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7e…f02cbacked No | 49c | 640.68$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked No | 24c | 394$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 49c | 356.62$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 6c | 342.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed No | 11c | 249$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…ebf5backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 51c | 111.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.