AI · resolved market
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7344262e7c843ecddf2e6e09d22071151cf92dc310512499b74e2ee77c167f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $477,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,401 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 11c | 24,154$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…3f78backed No | 1c | 19,605$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…6004backed No | 1c | 12,994$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…1334backed No | 1c | 10,299$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…23c3backed No | 7c | 10,298$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 17c | 9,828$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…2842backed Yes | 72c | 9,740$7,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 74c | 9,710$7,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b8…5fcebacked Yes | 80c | 8,966$7,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…9760backed No | 21c | 8,430$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 1c | 7,308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…2d84backed Yes | 76c | 7,281$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 6,321$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.54 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 14c | 5,040$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c9…fa12backed No | 21c | 4,936$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…69f6backed No | 28c | 4,709$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 4,600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8813…47e6backed No | 4c | 4,470$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 32c | 4,224$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked No | 21c | 4,033$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a4e2backed Yes | 63c | 3,598$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 79c | 3,534$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked No | 23c | 3,466$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…af9ebacked No | 27c | 3,370$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 2c | 3,333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…3049backed Yes | 75c | 3,277$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 75c | 3,256$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.02 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 71c | 3,221$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.16 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 27c | 3,098$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.72 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 79c | 3,088$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.46 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 12c | 2,926$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…1c56backed Yes | 78c | 2,885$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07db…8ea8backed Yes | 76c | 2,751$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 18c | 2,602$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.97 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…aad9backed Yes | 77c | 2,586$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…067cbacked No | 1c | 2,444$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…1022backed No | 6c | 2,413$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…0159backed No | 7c | 2,367$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…3053backed No | 22c | 2,359$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…2e65backed No | 2c | 2,340$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 15c | 2,164$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…1e03backed No | 12c | 2,015$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 11c | 2,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 79c | 1,985$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6748…151bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,960$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 1,861$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 19c | 1,801$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.88 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked No | 17c | 1,800$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 54c | 1,732$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.88 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 20c | 1,722$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59d…73d7backed No | 29c | 1,717$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…554bbacked No | 19c | 1,659$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 17c | 1,608$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed No | 8c | 1,608$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…4fbfbacked No | 19c | 1,593$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…3691backed No | 3c | 1,533$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…e1fdbacked No | 28c | 1,520$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ea…bc04backed No | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed No | 15c | 1,470$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a48cbacked No | 29c | 1,459$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed No | 9c | 1,435$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe57b…232cbacked No | 18c | 1,400$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 20c | 1,366$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…ef49backed No | 20c | 1,330$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…b1c0backed No | 24c | 1,257$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…e6f7backed No | 18c | 1,228$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed No | 16c | 1,224$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…2c37backed No | 19c | 1,198$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 19c | 1,175$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…ad09backed No | 12c | 1,146$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 1c | 1,137$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 11c | 1,100$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…b8ffbacked No | 15c | 1,100$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…9bbebacked No | 1c | 1,056$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 17c | 1,049$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed No | 19c | 1,040$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 54c | 1,035$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 16c | 1,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…298bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked No | 13c | 998.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…e82ebacked No | 18c | 988.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae49…96d3backed No | 8c | 910.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…5b68backed No | 20c | 904.51$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…116fbacked No | 9c | 901.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed No | 22c | 866.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…5713backed No | 18c | 842.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 12c | 838.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…8f92backed No | 26c | 824.04$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…a135backed No | 20c | 802.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…befdbacked Yes | 51c | 785.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…697abacked No | 40c | 782.43$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…36a5backed No | 17c | 760.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 23c | 751.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 25c | 716.8$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…87a6backed No | 29c | 702.68$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed Yes | 38c | 700$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…6433backed Yes | 57c | 699.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed No | 15c | 691.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 15c | 681.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?this page
- GPT-5.4 released by March 16?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 31?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.