AI · resolved market
GPT-5.4 released by March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de1219e992b0c8a39883b82cd99ca6dc12ea6088aad4430426334f78208d9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,463 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,983$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…3828backed No | 6c | 1,431$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 1,105$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked No | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 782.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 7c | 663.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…0159backed No | 2c | 660$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 4c | 561.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 4c | 536.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 4c | 380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 5c | 330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 77c | 247.15$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed No | 17c | 85.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 80c | 42.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 80c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.4 released by March 16?this page
- GPT-5.4 released by March 31?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.