AI · resolved market
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92aec877e55da923a50cb44912553ef0a768dc9bed64f23eb200f0580396956f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,633 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 11c | 2,315$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…3828backed No | 11c | 1,961$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked No | 11c | 1,845$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 72c | 1,370$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.86 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 20c | 1,058$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 26c | 1,017$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.83 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 14c | 992.56$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 962.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…5100backed No | 11c | 921.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 905.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 79c | 881.17$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.11 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 18c | 607.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 78c | 558.2$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 51c | 527.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.71 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 78c | 450.63$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed No | 11c | 349.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…e276backed No | 8c | 297.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 296.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…9760backed No | 20c | 270.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 80c | 250.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 15c | 237.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…5cd6backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 6c | 203.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 14c | 159.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 11c | 151.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff5…2ca8backed No | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Yes | 64c | 136.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 79c | 136.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed No | 13c | 135.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 20c | 132.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 14c | 120.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 42c | 117.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 77c | 108.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 46c | 104.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…b1c7backed Yes | 79c | 100.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…ea94backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…d646backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 44c | 98.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 20c | 92.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 84.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…29e6backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcd…98a2backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 52c | 68.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked Yes | 54c | 55.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 28c | 45.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…e8cfbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?this page
- GPT-5.4 released by March 16?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 31?Yes won
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.