TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36c3…a901

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$182.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$77.17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$56.4
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+146.9%+$119
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$86.58
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$33.63
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$101.9
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.67
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$14.7
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$136.74
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$79.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+85.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+231.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$11.04
Gold (GC) Up or Down on January 27?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$53.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$23.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.