Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893e92bc510aa7ae9b871c1f2b44f2c1cc725c101497ed102a4ff8669e171848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefc…d1a4backed Up | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…0bcdbacked Up | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…6893backed Up | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…08c5backed Up | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…e365backed Down | 56c | 2,300$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…3d19backed Down | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…140ebacked Down | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…c6c3backed Down | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…dba4backed Down | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…12bbbacked Down | 66c | 1,100$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…0463backed Down | 55c | 1,050$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Up | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…bd88backed Down | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +126%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…d301backed Down | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…9e27backed Down | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…64babacked Down | 66c | 900$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…41abbacked Down | 55c | 850$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Down | 76c | 29.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed Down | 69c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.