AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c3e789acdb428c1cf6b7926769ebe28afd45bc1a67ceb489e9f9c278736c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $970,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $970,586 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 50c | 102,779$51,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,150.2 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…c668backed No | 0c | 46,668$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…580bbacked No | 0c | 27,177$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 50c | 26,555$13,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,222.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…c5fdbacked No | 49c | 20,057$9,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,841.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…4ebfbacked No | 7c | 18,061$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 0c | 15,083$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed No | 10c | 12,177$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…d954backed No | 9c | 11,983$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed No | 35c | 11,369$3,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,992.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 41c | 9,758$4,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed No | 40c | 9,450$3,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 72c | 8,929$6,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.01 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…8898backed No | 2c | 8,760$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 34c | 8,639$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…8b06backed No | 63c | 7,847$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,974.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 13c | 7,839$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 0c | 7,619$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…c3ffbacked No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…c377backed No | 0c | 7,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…77e4backed No | 0c | 6,333$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…073ebacked No | 4c | 5,562$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 61c | 5,422$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.93 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 49c | 5,410$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.46 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fa…3248backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 50c | 4,999$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 41c | 3,675$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…14dbbacked No | 0c | 3,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…5f88backed No | 48c | 3,523$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed No | 40c | 3,372$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed No | 6c | 3,369$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 76c | 3,362$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.39 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 8c | 3,298$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 39c | 3,259$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 48c | 3,169$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.81 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 39c | 3,157$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…f1edbacked No | 6c | 2,753$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…f2ebbacked No | 4c | 2,646$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…f8a0backed No | 57c | 2,426$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked No | 15c | 2,350$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,328$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.35 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…2454backed No | 43c | 2,303$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 53c | 2,168$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.58 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 22c | 2,142$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 57c | 2,103$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 44c | 2,000$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 56c | 1,946$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.7 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 49c | 1,928$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 41c | 1,731$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 50c | 1,728$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.93 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 1,650$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.95 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…5ea9backed No | 14c | 1,530$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 58c | 1,494$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.34 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed No | 41c | 1,476$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 58c | 1,368$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed No | 50c | 1,345$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed No | 36c | 1,317$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda2…48cdbacked No | 52c | 1,169$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed No | 46c | 1,068$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 55c | 1,048$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed No | 45c | 1,013$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 56c | 1,007$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.41 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed No | 39c | 993.82$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 41c | 982.73$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed No | 42c | 939.86$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 58c | 903.85$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.6 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b4bdbacked No | 58c | 903.72$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked No | 35c | 900$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 50c | 877.56$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 64c | 861.12$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe6…a4babacked No | 13c | 858.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 53c | 852.41$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.55 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed No | 62c | 851.26$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…116fbacked No | 42c | 815.12$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…c7a4backed No | 44c | 803.21$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed No | 53c | 789.72$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.14 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 47c | 784.68$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.14 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 71c | 776.68$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 57c | 760.43$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.99 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 56c | 756.1$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.98 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 47c | 720.36$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 73c | 669.98$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 59c | 626$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 38c | 599.53$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…612abacked No | 41c | 590$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 37c | 576.42$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…c0e6backed No | 42c | 554.62$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 43c | 526.92$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…27dcbacked No | 57c | 520$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…9bccbacked No | 68c | 502.94$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed No | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 52c | 491.48$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 49c | 471.68$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.15 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 38c | 470.58$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed No | 40c | 464.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 60c | 451.53$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.85 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.