AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a464ae43f5f84ce7bc356c10e36c2f323b1c055645edbb2bf5aa3b80b46d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 22c | 700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 414.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 306.54$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 20c | 239.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 5c | 213.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 13c | 115.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 30c | 67.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 75c | 50.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 75c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.