AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db52fb46a473e0f60b5a08db8e1ae6b2dec5291cb58a2bd6556256ddda4ccfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,903 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa801…2702backed No | 0c | 11,148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…4d72backed No | 1c | 5,581$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 60c | 3,598$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.15 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 36c | 2,947$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.87 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 2c | 2,710$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed No | 2c | 2,611$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 69c | 2,400$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 34c | 1,068$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 39c | 1,058$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 58c | 678.57$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 40c | 660.57$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.44 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 32c | 409.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 75c | 404.07$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 59c | 370$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 30c | 339.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 308.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed No | 36c | 277.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 70c | 271.43$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 62c | 261$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 39c | 260.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 66c | 237.21$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 57c | 215.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 37c | 198.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…5ea9backed No | 32c | 174.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 29c | 168.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed No | 29c | 163.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 20c | 162.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 33c | 150.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 143.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 109.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 35c | 99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 23c | 77.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 76.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b2…5fa2backed No | 28c | 71.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 66.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 27c | 65.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 34c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 26c | 59.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 59.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce5…d3fcbacked No | 37c | 54.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 34c | 53.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 35c | 51.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…411abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 61c | 39.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 48c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 57c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed Yes | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.