AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5e16c32eda7ffd4492bd2f6228be7bb4d8d45dc2681d1820754df9cc870c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,095 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 63c | 4,013$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.89 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 29c | 3,276$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 76c | 2,432$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.28 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 31c | 2,355$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.71 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 74c | 1,730$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.03 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 26c | 1,100$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed No | 12c | 900$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 21c | 889$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed No | 19c | 741.73$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 414.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed No | 19c | 362.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 324.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 12c | 311.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 266.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 74c | 224.85$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 9c | 212.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 25c | 203.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…5ea9backed No | 24c | 154.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 16c | 128.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 21c | 126.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 23c | 123.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed No | 24c | 120.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 108.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 15c | 91.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 74c | 82.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 77.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…e276backed No | 36c | 55.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 68c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.