AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915bc298dac2e0b992433de515896d8b74bd7a15bf6978ed57dc3e578d1a90c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $535,169 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa801…2702backed No | 0c | 44,683$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…4d72backed No | 0c | 20,401$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 2c | 16,798$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fa…3248backed No | 0c | 15,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,346$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 59c | 7,024$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,868.67 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…e5f7backed No | 0c | 5,584$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed No | 7c | 3,400$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 6c | 3,266$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed No | 2c | 2,119$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,042$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 34c | 1,711$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.92 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 32c | 1,546$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.88 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 39c | 1,272$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 35c | 1,272$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 1,255$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 3c | 1,076$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 38c | 1,000$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 50c | 800$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 57c | 764.72$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.05 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 49c | 627.7$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…073ebacked No | 8c | 616.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 447.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 68c | 369.78$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fa…3759backed No | 57c | 320$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 29c | 319$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 71c | 300.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 63c | 246.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed No | 45c | 222.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…94d0backed No | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed No | 59c | 178.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 71c | 175$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 49c | 157.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 59c | 132.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 37c | 127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 38c | 120.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 49c | 115.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 43c | 115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…7438backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 63c | 82.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed No | 50c | 79.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 29c | 78.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 76.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 32c | 63.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41b2…5fa2backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 55c | 55.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed No | 39c | 50.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…5ea9backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…04edbacked Yes | 65c | 38.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 36c | 36.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…a3ffbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…822fbacked No | 49c | 30.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 54c | 28.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 42c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 66c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.