TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7e5…f6fc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
128
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.85
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+156.8%+$309.08
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,489.78
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.89
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.27
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.19
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.24
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.42
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.58
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.64
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,291Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,291.49
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$492.06
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.08
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$682.7
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.34
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$84.86
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+1,744.9%+$458.14
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.43
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-78.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.1
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.35
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+334.8%+$40.17
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.78
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.73
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,166.38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,202.73
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,084.15
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$432.26
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$142.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.