Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23dbb60ade08c2664ac29488325afbc0136735bc7beb9180d9c0cb72620b0b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,412,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,215,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,412,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,667 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 6c | 249,567$15,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,020.27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked No | 4c | 207,194$8,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,693.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…e94cbacked No | 6c | 163,948$9,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,155.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed No | 2c | 130,619$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 6c | 100,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…c0cebacked No | 0c | 98,369$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 6c | 70,000$3,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,978.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 55,530$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No | 0c | 55,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 5c | 49,169$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.42 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 47,462$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 0c | 46,306$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 5c | 42,564$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked No | 0c | 40,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 5c | 39,936$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed No | 5c | 38,324$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…8060backed No | 0c | 35,937$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 6c | 32,657$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…564fbacked No | 6c | 32,450$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 6c | 32,084$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…a62cbacked No | 0c | 27,360$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…35b8backed No | 0c | 27,095$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 24,781$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 24,611$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.8 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 22,762$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.81 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…79eebacked No | 6c | 22,306$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…66f5backed No | 5c | 21,384$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 0c | 20,623$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 4c | 20,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed No | 5c | 20,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…6463backed No | 0c | 19,875$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…e1d2backed No | 0c | 19,426$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…ead4backed No | 6c | 17,000$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…9961backed No | 6c | 16,671$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 5c | 15,678$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.22 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa464…6170backed No | 4c | 15,374$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 0c | 15,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…7334backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…8bcdbacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…1afdbacked No | 0c | 14,950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 0c | 14,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c0efbacked No | 5c | 14,795$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 6c | 14,237$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.19 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 12,992$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.95 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 12,412$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.32 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 1c | 11,878$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…7d79backed No | 6c | 11,864$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 0c | 10,802$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 5c | 10,412$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 0c | 10,352$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…e015backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…97bebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 6c | 9,999$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.63 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 9,657$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.08 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…4b33backed No | 0c | 9,130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…d6ccbacked No | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…a669backed No | 6c | 8,772$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…be54backed No | 0c | 8,639$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked No | 4c | 8,195$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 5c | 7,650$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 7,615$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…81e0backed No | 6c | 7,564$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…8af5backed No | 1c | 7,520$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 1c | 7,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…56eabacked No | 8c | 7,350$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 2c | 7,200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…7968backed No | 6c | 7,111$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…b89cbacked No | 6c | 6,780$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 6,694$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 1c | 6,678$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…2e29backed No | 6c | 6,435$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 6,415$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.37 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed No | 6c | 6,102$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 6c | 6,020$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 1c | 6,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…2d78backed No | 5c | 5,987$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf525…559dbacked No | 0c | 5,795$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b99…8a1cbacked No | 6c | 5,661$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 6c | 5,555$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…818bbacked No | 6c | 5,550$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fd…a0d3backed No | 6c | 5,303$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 5,280$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…5368backed No | 5c | 5,257$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…930dbacked No | 6c | 5,198$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…33c1backed No | 6c | 5,138$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d1…b801backed No | 6c | 5,018$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…563dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked No | 4c | 4,949$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…5558backed No | 6c | 4,931$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…c3ddbacked No | 6c | 4,624$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf471…be99backed No | 6c | 4,485$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2f93backed No | 6c | 4,485$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…ede1backed No | 6c | 4,464$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…dc67backed No | 5c | 4,453$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…b24abacked No | 6c | 4,440$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…d464backed No | 2c | 4,409$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…6fc1backed No | 6c | 4,397$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.