Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7538d4b4f24e276d243c1e0ac15c5d2799120277a9b921db3364a4dde86397e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,086,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $539,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,086,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 1c | 351,311$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.51 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 348,928$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.93 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 0c | 204,180$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 103,737$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,155$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.6 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…fd6bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,446$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 33,148$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 29,891$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 27,813$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 0c | 19,738$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 15,396$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,487$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…e173backed Yes | 0c | 12,476$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…526dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56a…cc72backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,194$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…fc52backed Yes | 1c | 10,170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b99…9f1dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,158$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…2db7backed Yes | 1c | 10,151$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…3bbcbacked Yes | 1c | 10,133$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…32a1backed Yes | 1c | 10,120$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…415fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…4c65backed Yes | 1c | 10,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…6aadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…c970backed Yes | 0c | 9,508$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,958$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8539…d5a0backed Yes | 0c | 7,796$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9894…6d3dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,718$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 1c | 6,374$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…9d32backed Yes | 0c | 5,474$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…33f2backed Yes | 1c | 5,168$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…0ea2backed Yes | 0c | 5,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7b…cf74backed Yes | 1c | 3,754$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 0c | 3,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…ac7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 2,790$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,725$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,711$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,553$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…ae3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,164$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.