Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3d00f908d0bb0320cfb28cfb64904d9d10fb4d3d174baf8a2c9583b6eb66cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,694,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $709,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,694,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 0c | 250,036$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d1…b801backed Yes | 0c | 235,895$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 149,594$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.61 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 146,180$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.11 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 111,932$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 0c | 106,753$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 0c | 88,490$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…639cbacked Yes | 0c | 59,550$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 59,505$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…7473backed Yes | 0c | 57,530$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…fd6bbacked Yes | 0c | 53,079$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 1c | 42,263$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 34,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…9d29backed Yes | 0c | 29,239$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…61b4backed Yes | 0c | 19,845$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 17,754$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…50f1backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 13,849$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 11,066$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 1c | 10,408$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a6…412bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca09…1b05backed Yes | 0c | 10,190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…8aa6backed Yes | 0c | 10,180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…e19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…5aebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…aad7backed Yes | 0c | 10,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…ff07backed Yes | 0c | 10,120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…b611backed Yes | 0c | 10,120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…3041backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,079$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…6271backed Yes | 1c | 10,068$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…6aadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…6fa3backed Yes | 0c | 9,516$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…f900backed Yes | 0c | 7,778$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…fc2ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,774$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…d33abacked Yes | 0c | 7,763$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc014…b67bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,759$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…930dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,326$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…f7e1backed Yes | 0c | 7,155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 7,029$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed04…07a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 0c | 6,457$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 5,889$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,641$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…f51bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…f23cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…03acbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…0ea2backed Yes | 0c | 5,060$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…c818backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cac…690abacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…97d6backed Yes | 0c | 4,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad56…55acbacked Yes | 0c | 4,238$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 0c | 4,098$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,863$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…eed7backed Yes | 1c | 3,343$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…fff2backed Yes | 0c | 3,305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 1c | 3,057$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9356…ae30backed Yes | 0c | 3,006$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…8ee4backed Yes | 1c | 2,754$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,715$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 2,713$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…8db1backed Yes | 0c | 2,688$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…8db3backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,476$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…0b2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…a863backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…5790backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…f114backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.