Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e2f7fc724af0b4c3a074a131749910a5352fca693e3ab6d693ae8e16ed7856e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,229,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $889,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,229,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 177,056$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…8684backed Yes | 0c | 140,250$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 133,639$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 109,997$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 98,312$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 79,050$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 78,965$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 70,366$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 68,421$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 61,603$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…78b5backed Yes | 0c | 50,352$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 0c | 44,605$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7467…e4bfbacked Yes | 0c | 31,985$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…4b33backed Yes | 0c | 30,080$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,365$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 11,985$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…dbfabacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…5ff0backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…b166backed Yes | 0c | 10,190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…a909backed Yes | 1c | 10,142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe93…a2f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…d6cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…6aadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…f29ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…7333backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 9,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…5719backed Yes | 1c | 9,207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…65afbacked Yes | 1c | 8,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6cefbacked Yes | 0c | 7,801$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Yes | 0c | 6,713$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,929$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…03acbacked Yes | 1c | 5,085$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…fa46backed Yes | 0c | 5,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…fe7ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…172fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 2,857$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Yes | 1c | 1,763$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.