Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe87ef65fbf14524375d7875fca53cab24de288efad25fc17269b7b7b580bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,678,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,109,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,678,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 673,260$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 451,890$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.78 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16f…3b87backed Yes | 0c | 187,000$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 159,828$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9e24backed Yes | 0c | 152,269$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 134,782$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…5effbacked Yes | 0c | 132,785$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 132,315$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 0c | 124,273$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 86,997$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 59,393$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…734dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,948$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…39dbbacked Yes | 0c | 39,070$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30eb…1bcebacked Yes | 0c | 38,984$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca0…2616backed Yes | 0c | 38,530$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ca…b108backed Yes | 0c | 38,330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b4…ea0dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f94…c122backed Yes | 0c | 38,330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…1748backed Yes | 0c | 38,330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…ee38backed Yes | 0c | 38,330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…b7d1backed Yes | 0c | 38,172$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c4…972bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,334$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…3077backed Yes | 0c | 37,321$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…80fbbacked Yes | 0c | 36,788$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…4da2backed Yes | 0c | 35,759$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c1…14e4backed Yes | 0c | 35,732$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…dde4backed Yes | 0c | 35,732$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…b388backed Yes | 0c | 35,621$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d45…92febacked Yes | 0c | 35,277$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 34,073$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd7…a625backed Yes | 0c | 28,850$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…78b5backed Yes | 0c | 25,139$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…fd6bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,474$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…8684backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 15,227$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…2f11backed Yes | 0c | 12,928$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…35e0backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 11,800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…1b67backed Yes | 0c | 10,445$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…8b17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…6aadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…54c9backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…2fa7backed Yes | 0c | 5,678$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…e06ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…6fa3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…172fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4315…698abacked Yes | 0c | 3,533$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…5692backed Yes | 0c | 2,872$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…36d5backed Yes | 0c | 2,857$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.