Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc1e1bcf0aed6eebd7056480133ebea59d0c8666bd07f2498c14bf958f700ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,611,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,137,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,611,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6c2…b5a9backed Yes | 0c | 6,809,064$11,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,697.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 2c | 195,609$3,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 111,351$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.62 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked Yes | 0c | 111,288$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…8556backed Yes | 0c | 87,489$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…1ae4backed Yes | 1c | 66,147$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…0075backed Yes | 1c | 51,271$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…e555backed Yes | 1c | 45,478$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…a5c8backed Yes | 1c | 43,259$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…9198backed Yes | 3c | 31,803$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…bf93backed Yes | 0c | 28,913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 2c | 27,294$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 26,310$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 24,151$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…b89cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,182$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe927…ca72backed Yes | 2c | 20,700$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 2c | 20,600$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…9e5ebacked Yes | 3c | 20,522$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…886abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…de2ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,530$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 17,700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…8bd0backed Yes | 2c | 16,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…17f6backed Yes | 1c | 15,178$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…434dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,513$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 10,631$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…66a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,210$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…fbf9backed Yes | 2c | 10,207$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…205bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,194$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d9…ec6bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,186$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…1f63backed Yes | 1c | 10,150$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…d974backed Yes | 1c | 10,140$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…346dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,099$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…6d8abacked Yes | 1c | 10,050$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes | 0c | 9,450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…836ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,959$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 8,743$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 8,404$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 7,982$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,886$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 0c | 7,634$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 7,558$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,474$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,341$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…5c11backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,947$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…8ee4backed Yes | 1c | 6,746$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…7168backed Yes | 1c | 6,191$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…f61cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,070$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2672…91a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,971$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…47afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,581$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb154…a39fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,291$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 5,101$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acf4backed Yes | 1c | 4,463$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…f923backed Yes | 1c | 4,402$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…029abacked Yes | 1c | 4,380$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…34d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,353$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…0c05backed Yes | 1c | 4,333$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…1ee3backed Yes | 1c | 4,328$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…fa21backed Yes | 1c | 4,318$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…16a0backed Yes | 3c | 4,285$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…9224backed Yes | 1c | 4,241$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…0300backed Yes | 1c | 4,229$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…fb69backed Yes | 1c | 4,194$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…75a5backed Yes | 1c | 4,080$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…79d5backed Yes | 1c | 4,019$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 3,991$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…d8debacked Yes | 1c | 3,973$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…717bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,967$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…c895backed Yes | 1c | 3,956$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e9…08b7backed Yes | 1c | 3,934$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…e999backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…39c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,826$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…1155backed Yes | 1c | 3,813$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2548…f788backed Yes | 1c | 3,802$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…8becbacked Yes | 1c | 3,769$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…0cf7backed Yes | 1c | 3,760$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…978dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,713$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e2…58f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,492$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…23c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,445$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,302$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5997…179fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,232$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…da19backed Yes | 2c | 3,207$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…62ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,197$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…85dbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…3182backed Yes | 1c | 3,066$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…5bc2backed Yes | 1c | 3,059$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…87cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,050$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 1c | 2,999$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,882$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…fe36backed Yes | 1c | 2,760$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…5cb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…18b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,597$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…814dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,540$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 2,438$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.