Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14fd8ab261d14215058b77a9541a5013ccc3d3eb677276a9de54445a31acd194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,970,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,909,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,970,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,533 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 0c | 1,743,035$7,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,673.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 0c | 1,343,651$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…cf4fbacked Yes | 0c | 827,575$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4adc…eb3abacked Yes | 1c | 598,621$5,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,689.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…d6ccbacked Yes | 0c | 556,318$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103a…3e8cbacked Yes | 1c | 499,619$3,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…56eabacked Yes | 2c | 314,263$6,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,279.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…72aabacked Yes | 0c | 306,470$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…6463backed Yes | 1c | 287,079$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes | 3c | 224,890$6,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,350.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…2ce7backed Yes | 4c | 223,547$9,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 2c | 214,717$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 2c | 200,000$4,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,974.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbb…eba1backed Yes | 3c | 182,981$5,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,194.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 1c | 173,096$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.72 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…900cbacked Yes | 3c | 149,487$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…3fe2backed Yes | 0c | 139,960$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…82ffbacked Yes | 1c | 130,909$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…74e0backed Yes | 2c | 118,798$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…2a2bbacked Yes | 0c | 116,668$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…5c1abacked Yes | 0c | 112,188$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…98e5backed Yes | 2c | 111,010$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 2c | 108,572$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…7968backed Yes | 3c | 103,108$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,001$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 3c | 100,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…395cbacked Yes | 4c | 99,433$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 2c | 96,729$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…036ebacked Yes | 2c | 92,884$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…7c7abacked Yes | 2c | 86,766$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2306…dddebacked Yes | 3c | 84,779$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…1bd0backed Yes | 0c | 81,491$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 2c | 80,139$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 70,853$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 65,071$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.93 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 3c | 62,760$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…5bc8backed Yes | 1c | 56,314$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3d9abacked Yes | 3c | 55,444$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…abcfbacked Yes | 3c | 50,249$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…9e0bbacked Yes | 2c | 45,996$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…541cbacked Yes | 3c | 41,611$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…71c9backed Yes | 1c | 32,479$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 2c | 31,500$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244f…b304backed Yes | 2c | 30,377$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 1c | 30,225$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.24 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aad…15b0backed Yes | 2c | 29,870$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…6f42backed Yes | 1c | 29,099$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…240dbacked Yes | 2c | 28,982$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…9138backed Yes | 1c | 26,945$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e3…296bbacked Yes | 3c | 26,247$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 24,854$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.07 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c8…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 23,311$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…e015backed Yes | 0c | 23,110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…cb81backed Yes | 2c | 21,397$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 21,137$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.96 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…1dc9backed Yes | 2c | 20,499$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…4e14backed Yes | 3c | 19,799$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…53f7backed Yes | 2c | 19,569$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 19,350$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes | 3c | 18,915$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…8180backed Yes | 2c | 18,675$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,553$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.66 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 18,488$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.78 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0128…55f6backed Yes | 3c | 17,093$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…9e5ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,148$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…ba10backed Yes | 0c | 15,627$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…c6c3backed Yes | 3c | 15,395$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…fab7backed Yes | 3c | 15,006$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…d292backed Yes | 2c | 14,537$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451b…6c43backed Yes | 3c | 13,834$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…6109backed Yes | 2c | 13,684$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…d22fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 2c | 12,694$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…c96fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…17f6backed Yes | 2c | 12,262$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…1093backed Yes | 2c | 12,239$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,921$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,526$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…92dcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,156$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…0b2fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,018$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…585ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,949$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…cd4abacked Yes | 1c | 10,753$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 10,568$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…bb00backed Yes | 3c | 10,175$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 10,001$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…9e84backed Yes | 2c | 9,964$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5d…0ee8backed Yes | 2c | 9,942$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…9d56backed Yes | 2c | 9,838$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…432fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,363$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 9,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…d0b8backed Yes | 2c | 9,170$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…f82fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,153$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c1…a96bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,116$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…f0e7backed Yes | 1c | 8,631$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 8,515$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…0b05backed Yes | 3c | 8,428$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…8060backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 1c | 8,300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd69…4459backed Yes | 2c | 8,240$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…49c5backed Yes | 2c | 8,232$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.