Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb24cf9df2259a36151115ba5ad777c11a88e12330ec87a7d59db63b98c40d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,680$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.54 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,067$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…3c3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,752$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…8286backed Yes | 1c | 1,621$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…d8dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,339$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…a197backed Yes | 4c | 1,084$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 820.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…c6c3backed Yes | 12c | 818.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 816.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 808$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 63c | 763.01$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…4fe3backed Yes | 16c | 728.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…9915backed Yes | 3c | 709.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 19c | 697.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 676.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 16c | 623.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce7…7888backed Yes | 2c | 621.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…0743backed Yes | 4c | 556.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 19c | 520.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 77c | 390.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 389.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 332.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 309.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d312backed Yes | 5c | 210.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 15c | 203.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 20c | 200.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…3a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 189.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…0d38backed Yes | 10c | 151.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 138.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…03b0backed No | 80c | 125.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 123.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 10c | 107.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9f…c221backed Yes | 14c | 106.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed Yes | 43c | 93.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…ad89backed Yes | 24c | 89.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 28c | 71.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 30c | 67.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbf…00c8backed Yes | 20c | 65.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…6337backed No | 77c | 39.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8715…8243backed No | 73c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 78c | 32.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 25.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.