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NBA · resolved market

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,030,699
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,757,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,030,699 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,733 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c809,533$8,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,775.9539435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes3c799,130$23,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,267.3666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes2c477,440$9,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,259.97119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+159.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes2c450,044$9,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,382.084845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes2c408,093$7,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,267.543718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Yes3c327,571$8,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,207.9512740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes2c321,842$7,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,950.912,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c257,988$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.7546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6677…799bbacked Yes4c250,876$9,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,692.06616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-70.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes2c234,376$5,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,196.91,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes3c219,115$6,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.2495641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f1…05a4backed Yes2c174,148$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42d…2e9abacked Yes3c142,841$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.75520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes3c125,785$3,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.923231.3%10 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+136.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yes2c123,959$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.448150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c122,722$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.84130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes2c120,219$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.991225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Yes3c120,087$4,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,11032347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa1…53f6backed Yes1c117,558$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Yes2c115,338$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.9417147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c96,791$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.653010%3 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc4…911ebacked Yes2c96,321$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes1c93,358$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.191010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c92,515$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.2584443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes1c87,813$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.8411639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes3c82,553$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes2c80,155$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.66110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2375…2128backed Yes2c76,749$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6597…997dbacked Yes0c76,539$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.121118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes4c73,376$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.06240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8172…5f35backed Yes2c73,138$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c71,553$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.18827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf804…8758backed Yes2c67,792$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.313839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd008…135dbacked Yes4c66,150$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.98812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+141%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes4c62,781$2,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.7382440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes4c62,406$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.02417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fee…55fdbacked Yes1c60,876$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.181315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes1c60,667$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a6…a3b5backed Yes2c60,011$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes2c56,555$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c55,555$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes2c55,318$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.75911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eee…5841backed Yes3c55,311$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.86128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes5c55,270$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.563221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd859…c7c2backed Yes0c54,545$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.541816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85a…615abacked Yes2c54,030$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.97120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Yes1c53,778$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.124032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes2c50,604$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.993225%8 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes2c50,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed Yes1c49,577$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+252%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85e0…3a93backed Yes2c46,365$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.779214.1%13 W · 79 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes4c44,650$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.941020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes1c44,272$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.14119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick1cpaid+229.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…5078backed Yes2c44,238$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.33911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+158.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda8b…f67fbacked Yes2c43,538$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes1c39,706$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.672626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x310b…19ccbacked Yes2c39,587$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.2210045%45 W · 55 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c39,324$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.8460834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca58…efb9backed Yes2c39,213$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes4c37,873$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.485728.1%16 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes1c37,211$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.46190%0 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes3c36,184$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.1540133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes3c34,796$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.826232.3%20 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6df…0e4dbacked Yes2c33,912$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Yes1c33,275$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.423333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d60…ec04backed Yes2c33,223$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked Yes3c33,034$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.791030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Yes4c32,774$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes4c31,836$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.9416030.6%49 W · 111 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76db…11dcbacked Yes2c31,086$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes0c30,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+112.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc078…5415backed Yes5c28,486$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes3c27,162$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.22147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc8…7b86backed Yes2c27,053$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes1c26,125$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.561,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4089…99d5backed Yes0c25,475$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.45825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Yes5c25,128$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.644623.9%11 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d59…2589backed Yes3c25,102$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.441216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes3c25,036$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0708…2937backed Yes2c24,324$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…81d5backed Yes5c24,228$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.7615135.1%53 W · 98 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c24,092$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-85.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes4c24,069$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.2420536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes2c23,611$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.51010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes1c23,458$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.311136%40 W · 71 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f0…d345backed Yes1c23,250$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2672536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+115.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba07…d785backed Yes2c22,492$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.391030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Yes3c22,405$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.5113843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Yes2c22,334$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes4c21,450$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7522036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0141…a364backed Yes3c21,337$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes2c21,300$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.14358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…7e41backed Yes2c21,033$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.621936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes2c21,000$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38953951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477e…49c1backed Yes5c20,930$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…7a4abacked Yes3c20,870$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb86…1a3abacked Yes4c20,010$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes2c20,000$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.764573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes2c20,000$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6312741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.