TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,570,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,356,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,570,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c1,623,938$8,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,023.931315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes0c1,242,171$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.916619.7%13 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c1,059,644$4,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,717.2539435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes1c632,629$4,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,218.6387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c514,893$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.58827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes0c459,276$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.553718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes1c438,327$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9265…2cc0backed Yes2c412,859$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c348,903$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.14130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c332,135$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.81214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c240,377$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.8582440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes1c114,210$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.261020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes0c108,333$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf24c…8bd9backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a9…0537backed Yes0c99,480$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc280…12a8backed Yes1c89,514$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.4650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes1c86,786$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65533743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41be…d38bbacked Yes0c85,266$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c82,706$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.05535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c81,262$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.51417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ca…ed14backed Yes1c80,282$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.3950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9126…fb8cbacked Yes1c76,346$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b68…f943backed Yes1c75,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159a…27c7backed Yes1c72,703$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb13…c943backed Yes0c67,651$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…7deebacked Yes0c66,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+425%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Yes1c65,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4552653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aa2…e4a7backed Yes0c64,704$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ef…ee68backed Yes0c64,476$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13bf…4366backed Yes0c60,600$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes1c59,536$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.8216243.8%71 W · 91 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes1c58,769$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.84812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51d…6084backed Yes0c56,928$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x609e…0996backed Yes1c56,432$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a3…6c97backed Yes1c56,314$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419c…9111backed Yes1c56,217$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50c…46c7backed Yes1c55,524$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e50…2d32backed Yes0c55,472$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c53,651$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.1646426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…a79ebacked Yes1c53,109$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.8880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b0…c117backed Yes0c51,056$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…5800backed Yes1c50,956$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.0260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d34…f0d9backed Yes0c50,562$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes0c50,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554314%6 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid+85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98d…dff6backed Yes1c48,257$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.721711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb94…b411backed Yes0c48,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6085…8ec3backed Yes1c47,709$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…9f44backed Yes1c46,460$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759f…9954backed Yes1c46,373$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…9ba4backed Yes0c45,392$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d14…dbd4backed Yes1c45,175$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2b…bc24backed Yes1c44,277$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c43,692$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.854035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c4…d6dabacked Yes1c43,307$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…98f8backed Yes0c43,215$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3497…2596backed Yes1c42,481$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.590%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25fa…7af0backed Yes1c42,450$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.8180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1032…bb4abacked Yes0c42,269$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4089…99d5backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…708ebacked Yes1c38,963$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41e…eba5backed Yes0c38,616$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e2…f5acbacked Yes0c37,444$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bb…e491backed Yes1c36,951$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d8…2643backed Yes1c36,028$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Yes1c35,986$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.93850%19 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf884…46c8backed Yes0c35,665$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd76…22febacked Yes1c34,379$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes1c33,992$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes1c33,191$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f38…1853backed Yes2c32,938$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bff…7291backed Yes1c31,995$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa324…afc9backed Yes1c31,700$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4180%0 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c38…7931backed Yes1c31,344$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf296…c3a2backed Yes1c30,833$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9175…41b2backed Yes1c30,653$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.3460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c29,970$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.821978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes1c29,965$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.795125.5%13 W · 38 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6e6…ae34backed Yes1c29,427$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.6340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…9499backed Yes1c29,068$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.7640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3154…17f5backed Yes0c28,308$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes1c27,400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes1c27,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-83.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…3185backed Yes1c26,265$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3b…5eafbacked Yes1c25,499$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653d…5e2abacked Yes1c25,086$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes1c25,082$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.951010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7043…1425backed Yes1c24,999$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed43…51b0backed Yes1c24,813$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed Yes1c22,390$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.448742.5%37 W · 50 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8842…ca90backed Yes1c21,721$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes1c21,000$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15453951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes1c21,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5890…9cd7backed Yes1c20,200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c20,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes1c19,744$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.21150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc464…7e76backed Yes0c19,281$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1b…fc86backed Yes1c18,899$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c18,680$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.11110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes1c18,304$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.