TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,557,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,557,766 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c5,839,452$6,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,570.12258%2 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-85.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c1,281,669$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,280214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c388,187$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.6146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea4d…c654backed Yes1c249,472$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c244,890$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.38150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c201,087$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.751978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c162,122$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.98535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c156,031$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.188827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c129,643$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.54035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7f…f11bbacked Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfcf…6dc5backed Yes0c95,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c92,568$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.76812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9af6…60e7backed Yes0c89,439$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3022…59c1backed Yes1c84,245$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.7260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64b…d37cbacked Yes1c70,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a42…d013backed Yes0c63,500$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes0c61,302$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.511533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb265…782cbacked Yes0c60,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3006…6f28backed Yes0c54,936$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f3…a815backed Yes0c51,586$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0799…1d99backed Yes0c50,020$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec80…2cd7backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed Yes1c48,102$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.726132.8%20 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…c5fcbacked Yes0c46,482$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a6…3f55backed Yes0c45,221$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c7…7a4bbacked Yes0c45,211$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b5…4311backed Yes0c45,148$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f73…89febacked Yes0c44,824$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb87…d87abacked Yes0c44,525$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf931…0c68backed Yes0c44,372$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28c…de35backed Yes0c44,324$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3f…52aabacked Yes0c44,159$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5157…d618backed Yes0c44,056$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7734…3f9ebacked Yes0c43,888$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes0c41,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3d…d8aabacked Yes0c39,725$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…c232backed Yes0c37,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1c…f4ebbacked Yes0c32,122$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1a…3501backed Yes0c30,177$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes0c30,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-83.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes0c30,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes0c30,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805125.5%13 W · 38 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x96b2…f24ebacked Yes0c29,741$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes1c29,143$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c25,750$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.07417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6565…2c02backed Yes0c25,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes1c25,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes1c25,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b17…7990backed Yes0c24,904$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab91…2fd5backed Yes0c23,059$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1339…fab9backed Yes0c23,018$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda09…4852backed Yes0c22,264$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes0c20,433$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes0c20,400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d2…034bbacked Yes0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…02a5backed Yes0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbea…51bbbacked Yes0c19,476$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf296…c3a2backed Yes0c18,176$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes1c18,139$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921d…efb8backed Yes1c18,075$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.451540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc22c…a66ebacked Yes0c17,331$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c17,312$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25fa…7af0backed Yes0c16,980$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…3185backed Yes0c16,228$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes0c16,220$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…a79ebacked Yes0c15,926$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee7…930bbacked Yes1c15,200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ee…5cc8backed Yes0c15,023$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…1e7fbacked Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8186…8feabacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819d…d7ffbacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes0c14,677$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fef…10d6backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…31e8backed Yes1c13,500$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1115…83f5backed Yes0c13,123$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes0c13,028$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.081526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…f0b4backed Yes0c12,568$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes0c12,547$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95d9backed Yes0c12,311$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes0c12,134$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes0c12,128$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d2…9d5cbacked Yes0c11,733$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c9…28aebacked Yes1c11,286$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d3…891ebacked Yes0c11,123$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c21…6abbbacked Yes0c10,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2746…3cffbacked Yes0c10,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8673…92debacked Yes0c10,124$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes0c10,061$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…5800backed Yes0c10,043$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d1…7438backed Yes0c10,023$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ed…56febacked Yes0c10,020$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4b…ed07backed Yes0c10,002$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b4…b857backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ceb…0f9ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.