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NBA · resolved market

Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,582,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,161,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,582,270 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes1c1,237,866$7,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,084.5587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes1c1,098,199$6,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,914.461315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c761,351$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.8939435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd458…b521backed Yes1c381,826$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.53056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b9…1d5fbacked Yes1c311,686$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Yes0c310,346$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.0672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Yes0c274,924$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.4730619.9%61 W · 245 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c247,885$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.3640133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes1c236,003$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.166028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes1c191,676$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.75812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c167,206$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.281,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes1c151,428$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.823917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c142,618$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8882440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…5d96backed Yes1c141,218$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes0c141,036$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes1c138,382$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.226924.6%17 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes1c134,610$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes0c131,930$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.376619.7%13 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes0c116,896$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes1c114,798$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.983231.3%10 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+136.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes1c111,188$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.4631347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Yes1c105,837$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.556634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c101,191$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.45240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfc…2e3abacked Yes2c99,258$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c95,331$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.45130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes1c95,171$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.846820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c83,983$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.62417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes0c83,482$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.96560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…2c28backed Yes1c82,717$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes1c68,292$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.834573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41be…d38bbacked Yes0c66,955$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb13…c943backed Yes0c66,021$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159a…27c7backed Yes1c66,001$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…a79ebacked Yes1c62,510$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…98f8backed Yes0c62,322$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e2…f5acbacked Yes0c60,737$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13bf…4366backed Yes0c60,600$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…9ba4backed Yes0c60,437$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Yes0c60,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12014738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3154…17f5backed Yes0c59,649$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa2…e4a7backed Yes0c57,110$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d0…908bbacked Yes1c57,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70c…04adbacked Yes0c53,946$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d34…f0d9backed Yes0c53,742$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e50…2d32backed Yes0c53,583$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51d…6084backed Yes0c53,436$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes1c53,377$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.995641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2b…bc24backed Yes1c52,723$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ccc…5a0fbacked Yes1c52,719$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.992010%2 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-25.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28b0…c117backed Yes0c52,624$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes0c51,744$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.742615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes0c51,192$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5215911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c51,022$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.174035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c50,909$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.27110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c50,668$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…5800backed Yes1c50,215$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.7660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes1c50,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6505644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa324…afc9backed Yes1c49,600$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8180%0 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ae…4b60backed Yes0c49,397$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Yes1c48,750$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3903850%19 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd41e…eba5backed Yes0c48,714$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899d…c30dbacked Yes1c46,362$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.7850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98d…dff6backed Yes1c45,682$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.491711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a3…6c97backed Yes1c45,273$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes1c44,954$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.816152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e6…ae34backed Yes1c44,587$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9126…fb8cbacked Yes1c43,672$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…3185backed Yes1c43,153$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419c…9111backed Yes1c40,925$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759f…9954backed Yes1c39,475$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1032…bb4abacked Yes0c39,133$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes0c39,000$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.623129%9 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c8…708ebacked Yes1c38,974$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes1c37,824$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c37,721$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.72590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8159…ed58backed Yes1c37,640$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026246.6%122 W · 140 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98bb…e491backed Yes1c37,551$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25fa…7af0backed Yes1c36,390$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf884…46c8backed Yes0c36,003$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes0c36,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424314%6 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid+85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9377…8484backed Yes1c35,500$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50c…46c7backed Yes1c35,404$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d8…2643backed Yes1c34,986$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1094…9ef7backed Yes1c34,552$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb56a…9e83backed Yes1c34,304$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda09…4852backed Yes1c33,781$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bff…7291backed Yes1c33,663$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes0c32,974$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.615648.1%75 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c31,987$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…9499backed Yes1c31,552$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c4…d6dabacked Yes1c31,242$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes1c30,180$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ef…ee68backed Yes0c30,006$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Yes2c30,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0707…9142backed Yes1c29,218$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99a…0b26backed Yes1c28,833$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes1c28,770$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…0facbacked Yes1c27,515$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d2…9d5cbacked Yes1c26,982$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.