TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,351,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,351,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,351,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c1,185,624$7,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,169.651,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes1c793,390$7,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,684.287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c491,208$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.5239435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c332,009$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.01140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes0c300,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9577348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c268,160$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.1282440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes1c230,974$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.7695641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes0c201,090$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.278332.5%27 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5890…9cd7backed Yes1c177,190$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c147,439$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee2b…bc24backed Yes1c134,146$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.3440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c131,329$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.25214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159a…27c7backed Yes1c129,047$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c126,212$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.21110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d8…2643backed Yes1c125,673$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes1c120,815$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.7133743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…3185backed Yes1c118,292$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653d…5e2abacked Yes1c117,742$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.0640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c116,484$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.79130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c4…d6dabacked Yes1c106,215$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…9f44backed Yes1c103,451$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3b…5eafbacked Yes1c103,173$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9126…fb8cbacked Yes1c101,112$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6085…8ec3backed Yes1c96,665$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d14…dbd4backed Yes1c91,980$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.4940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes1c90,609$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bff…7291backed Yes1c84,973$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c84,279$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.561315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c38…7931backed Yes1c83,060$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes1c81,441$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.446820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes1c79,999$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e5…0f52backed Yes1c78,742$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a3…6c97backed Yes1c68,481$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c65,335$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.92417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x305c…8aa8backed Yes1c64,050$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c63,156$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.354035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98d…dff6backed Yes1c62,111$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.81711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c61,256$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.861978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460b…a326backed Yes1c59,588$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed43…51b0backed Yes1c59,366$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.7750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…ca90backed Yes1c58,398$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50c…46c7backed Yes1c56,562$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x318c…85cabacked Yes1c54,419$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d2…7333backed Yes0c50,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…aa94backed Yes1c49,267$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…c655backed Yes1c49,226$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed Yes1c47,922$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.976132.8%20 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf27…d990backed Yes1c46,942$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes2c46,899$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.816942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2437…e5eebacked Yes1c46,396$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c1…c4f4backed Yes1c46,257$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.351520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa324…afc9backed Yes1c46,199$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8180%0 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd608…fcd1backed Yes1c45,794$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6783…9314backed Yes1c45,003$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bb…e491backed Yes1c43,787$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Yes1c42,883$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0617658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b40…a79ebacked Yes1c42,215$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c41,126$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.15110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e78…8bdfbacked Yes1c40,126$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…5800backed Yes1c40,094$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1f…03d6backed Yes1c39,984$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d6…0fefbacked Yes1c39,294$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1094…9ef7backed Yes1c38,512$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.8740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f6f…9bf3backed Yes1c37,829$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc280…12a8backed Yes1c36,629$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa593…9418backed Yes1c36,608$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ca…ed14backed Yes1c35,075$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceeb…e1b7backed Yes1c33,733$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.6740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e6…ae34backed Yes1c33,161$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.3440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes1c32,823$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.831347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28c8…708ebacked Yes1c32,520$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes1c32,208$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3360549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x087a…eecabacked Yes1c31,881$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d4…09febacked Yes1c31,111$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ce…9de8backed Yes1c31,052$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Yes1c30,491$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8415724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fe…b472backed Yes1c30,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf675…dfbfbacked Yes1c29,810$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…fdccbacked Yes2c29,233$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759f…9954backed Yes1c28,610$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd76…22febacked Yes1c27,555$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9175…41b2backed Yes1c26,585$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df7…450bbacked Yes1c26,160$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25fa…7af0backed Yes1c25,470$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9377…8484backed Yes1c25,445$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.8340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c25,178$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.7112930.2%39 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419c…9111backed Yes1c24,971$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes1c24,046$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Yes1c23,696$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.171315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+126.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a65…f2e7backed Yes1c23,137$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes1c22,314$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf296…c3a2backed Yes1c21,448$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes1c21,000$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21353951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x899d…c30dbacked Yes1c20,653$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes1c20,528$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2838239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c20,195$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a5…841fbacked Yes1c20,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602520%5 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.